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Wondering how the upcoming midterm elections might impact your portfolio?
Glassman Wealth recently hosted a conversation with Greg Valliere, a political analyst and Chief U.S. Policy Strategist at AGF Investments. Greg is one of the leading experts at connecting the dots between what is going on in Washington and on Wall Street.
Both the House of Representatives and Senate are up for grabs, and that will have an enormous impact on the next two years.
Here were a few predictions for the midterm elections and other top political issues:
- Election Outlook: It is likely the House will flip to a Republican majority. The overturning of Roe v. Wade is a big issue at play that may swing votes towards the Democrats, but inflation is critical. Not only would a swing in several House seats be normal for midterms, but the inflation problem and presidential approval ratings indicate momentum for Republicans. The Senate is a closer call. Three big races to watch are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
- Policy Implications: Assuming the House flips Republican and the Senate is a close call, that means gridlock in Washington. Kevin McCarthy is unlikely to support any tax increases. Gridlock might be welcomed by Wall Street, as businesses can plan better for tax policy, and a slowdown in fiscal spending might be positive during inflationary times. Expect more hearings and less legislative action. It’s possible that there is no tax legislation to prevent the sunsetting of key tax rules in 2025.
- Ukraine War: Ukraine’s military has surprised many in Washington with their resilience. As Russian casualties increase, the Russians may increase their campaign of destruction and even use a tactical nuclear weapon, but expect resistance from Russian generals and a backlash from the world community. The tactical nuke possibility can’t be ruled out.
- Federal Reserve: The Fed got inflation wrong after record fiscal spending during the pandemic. While they won’t stop hiking interest rates immediately, the day may arrive before many currently expect. The Fed needs to be conscious of the “medicine killing the patient” if they hike rates too aggressively and the economy enters recession. The Fed will likely debate slowing down after the next rate hike.
- 2024 Presidential Nominees: While Trump is the presumptive front-runner for the Republican party, Ron DeSantis is another potential candidate that may satisfy the base on the right. Other potentials include Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Glenn Youngkin, and Mike Pence. Similar to prior elections, it’s a big field. Meanwhile, age is an increasing concern both in the White House and on Capitol Hill. It’s possible Biden doesn’t run in 2024. Gavin Newsom is another presidential hopeful to watch on the Democratic side, but California is plagued with local issues that will hurt his chances.
For more insight, watch our interview with Greg here.
If you’re curious to learn more about how politics and the midterms will affect your portfolio, please reach out to the Glassman Wealth Team. Contact Us